Prediction II: The PUMA Prediction- McCain/Palin 307 : Obama/Biden 231

Alrighty then, here is my prediction for this Presidential election:

Right now, I know most polls point to the fact that the following states are going to go Obama or are toss-ups, I think they will all end up in the McCain/Palin column by the time this election is over:

Nevada- Present Status: Toss-Up

In 2000, Nevada went Red by a margin of 3.55%

In 2004, Nevada went Red again by a margin of 2.59%

In 2008, going into the Primary Caucus, Hillary was leading with anywhere from 3% to 9%. Nevada had one of the most divisive primaries in the nation, with lawsuits being used to fight a proxy battle between Hillary’s supporters and Obama’s supporters.

If there is a state where there are lots of PUMAs, it is this one.

The fact that the state has voted Republican in the last two elections, the fact that the state borders Utah which is heavily Republican, and the fact that it has a large percentage of PUMAs, indicates it would go McCain/Palin tomorrow.

Colorado- Present Status: Toss-Up

In 2000, Colorado went Red by a margin of 8.36%

In 2004, Colorado, went Red by a margin of 4.67%

In 2008, at the Colorado Caucus, going in, Obama had a 2% lead in the polls, when all was said and done, Obama won the Caucus by a margin of 2:1. PUMAs don’t get mad, we get even.

The historical tendency of this state to go Red, and the number of PUMAs that are waiting for a chance to finally have their voices heard shall put this state in the McCain/Palin column.

New Mexico- Present Status: Toss-Up

In 2000, New Mexico went Blue by a margin of 0.06%

In 2004, New Mexico went Red by a margin of 0.79%

In 2008, Hillary won the New Mexico primary. Going into the general election, Barack Obama has to contend with voters who are literally split down the middle, add the PUMA factor and the odds are stacked against him. In 2000, Gore won the state by less than 400 votes, in 2004, Bush won that state by about 7,000 votes. To win in 2008, Obama would have to nullify Bush’s margin of victory, and also carry all 73,105 Hillary voters.

It is possible but improbable for Obama to achieve this feat, as at a bare minimum 10% of Hillary’s vote has gone PUMA. Consequently, expect New Mexico to be in the McCain/Palin column.

Iowa- Present Status: Obama

In 2000, Iowa went Blue by a margin of 0.31%

In 2004, Iowa went Red by a margin of 0.67%

In 2008, Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus. But, guess what? From all indications, a lot of those who voted for him were bused in from Eastern Illinois.  In 2000, Gore won Iowa by less than 6,000 votes, in 2004, Bush won Iowa by about 10,000 votes.

To win Iowa in 2008, Barack Obama must not only nullify Bush’s margin of victory, but also ensure that in Iowa there aren’t at least 10,000 PUMAs. Again, this scenario is possible, but extremely improbable.

Missouri- Present Status: Toss Up

In 2000, Missouri went Red by a margin of 3.34%,

In 2004, Missouri went Red by a margin 7.20%

In 2008, Barack Obama won Missouri by 10,000 votes, although Hillary won 110 of the 116 counties in the State. It is important to note that in 2004, Bush did 23% better in Missouri’s small town’s than he did in small towns nationally, winning 112 of 113 of them. It is unlikely that this trend shall change significantly in 2008.

Plus MO is PUMA country. As with Iowa and New Mexico, it is possible but highly improbable for Barack Obama to not only eliminate the 7.20% lead George Bush had in 2004, as most of that vote came from rural counties, but also keep all 395,185 votes Hillary got in his column.

This puts Missouri firmly in the McCain/Palin column (remember, as Missouri goes, so goes the nation).

Ohio and Pennsylvania- Present Status: Toss Up

I am not even going to go into historical trends here, just go take a look at what happened in the primaries between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Hillary won each state by a margin of about 10%.

There is no historical precedent in a centrist society such as ours for a state to overwhelmingly reject a liberal candidate in the primaries in favor of a centrist/moderate one and then reject a centrist/moderate candidate in the general election in favor of a liberal one.

If there are two states which are definitely going McCain/Palin, those states would be Ohio and Pennsylvania. Pssst… those states are actually hotbeds of PUMA activity. Not only do we have offices there, bu PUMAs from other states such as NY have actually been volunteering in PA to boost the efforts of local PUMAs. I actully volunteered in Scranton, PA this weekend, where I met John and Cindy McCain

Just in case you haven’t figured it out already, for the record, these two states are going to be in the McCain/Palin column.

Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana- Present Status: Toss Up

Just like PA and OH, I am not going to go into historical analysis here. However, the same concepts that apply to PA and OH, apply to these 3. Obama won VA and NC as a result of the black vote in the primaries. Hillary won IN despite voter fraud in Lake County that all but eliminated a double digit lead on her part.

Bush won VA by a margin of 8%+ in 2000 and 2004. Bush also won NC by a margin of about 13% in 2000 and 2004 (despite North Carolina Senator, John Edwards being the Demcoratic Vice-Presidential Candidate in that year).

It is possibly, but highly improbable that Obama would carry any of these states in the election. So again, all three can be put in the McCain/Palin category.

Florida- Present Status: Toss Up

Ever heard of Fidel Castro? Ever heard of how Obama disenfranchised Florida during the Primaries? Ever heard of how the military votes? For those three reasons Obama is a non-starter in this state.

Cubans who make up a large percentage of the population there are not going to vote for a man who promises socialism, when they all ran away from another socialist named Fidel Castro. PUMAs, and Florida has many of us, have not forgiven Obama for disenfranchising this state during the primaries, and of course the military families in this state do NOT trust Obama.

As a result this state is firmly going to McCain/Palin.

There you have it folks. Thanks to a combination of factors, Obama being unelectable being one of them, and of course PUMA power at work, tomorrow McCain/Palin shall not only replicate what George Bush did in 2004, but also turn Pennsylvania red!

If there is one thing you are going to take away from all the above, it is that a country does not go from center right to extreme left. Such a change does not happen because of a simple five letter word called P-R-I-D-E! As Americans we still fundamentally believe that the individual and not the government is the driving force of our nation.

The only time America lurched left was in 1932 after the great depression, Americans lost faith in themselves and wanted the state to take care of them. In 2008, as bad as things may be, the vast majority of people still have faith in themselves, they do NOT and will NOT have the government take over their welfare.

This is why Barack Obama’s message of doom, gloom, and the neccessity of having the government step in failed during the primaries, and shall fail at the ballot tomorrow.

God Bless America!

Posted by PUMA Pundit

Obama to Floridans… “Here in Ohio”… Crowd proceeds to boo him…

Speaks for itself… I guess the love affair is over, if his own crowd starts to boo him, things can’t be that rosy, or can they?

Posted by PUMA Pundit

Without Taxpayer Approval, Florida Buses Public School Students to Polls During School Hours

As Florida goes, so goes the nation. At least that has been the case with the last 3 Presidential elections. But what is the dynamic at play in Florida when it comes to voting in 2008?

Here’s what the Dallas Morning News has to say:

Florida, with its critical cache of 27 electoral votes, could come down to whether the reliable GOP seniors will be offset by the turbo-charged but flighty habits of youth.

This year Democrats have mounted a half-million-voter edge in registrations, with much of the boost coming from campus drives. For the first time in Florida, voters 34 and younger outnumber those 65 and older.

But traditionally, the young don’t vote and the seniors do.

 

So, what does Camp Obama do to break with tradition and nullify the senior vote? It thinks outside the box, and borrows a line from countries with strong democratic cultures such as Iraq (under Saddam Barack Hussein Obama), Syria, China, Libya, North Korea and even Cuba where an overwhelming majority of the electorate votes. Take a look at the opening paragraph of this 2003 report from the BBC  on Cuba’s election:

Cuba’s Communist Party has declared a victory for socialism after announcing that more than 97% of voters had taken part in the country’s one-party general election.

Of course 97% of the electorate took part, that is what happens when the machinery of state is used in Astroturfing an election. Kind of how China astroturfed spectors for the Olympics. 

So to significantly increase voter turn-out (remember Bush won Florida by less than 1,000 votes),  Camp Obama decides to use its’ cronies in the School Board to set up a program to bus Broward County students over the age of 18 to the polls during school hours, a repeat of a similar performance in 2004:

Broward County School District estimates it has transported several hundred students, who have turned 18 and already registered, to early voting sites to cast their ballots. Broward has more than 70,000 high school students at 32 high schools.

Students may miss some class time and some teachers even offer extra credit for the outing, which can be part of a class such as social studies or just a separate activity.
“It’s part of being an American citizen and this is something that we teach in school, the importance of voting,” said school district spokesman Keith Bromery, who likened the program to a field trip.

About 45 students from Blanche Ely High School stood in line for over an hour earlier this week, eating Cheetos, joking and reading over sample ballots outside a library in Pompano Beach.
“Teachers give extra credit for registering to vote and for voting. They’re really trying to get us out there,” said Tara Gocul, a senior at Blanche Ely High School who turned 18 last month.
Gocul says she would have voted anyway, though it’s more convenient to do it during school hours.

Like most of her peers, Gocul is supporting Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. A recent AP-Yahoo News Poll conducted earlier this month shows nearly 2-to-1 support for Obama over Republican John McCain among 18- to 29-year-olds nationally. Broward is also a heavily Democratic county.

“I wouldn’t have voted if there wasn’t any (candidates) that I didn’t care about,” she said.
Next to her in line, 18-year-old Curt Dujon said, “All that I thought about was Obama, Obama, Barack Obama.“

Now this might seem innocent but it isn’t.

Unlike in Cuba, Libya, North Korea or Syria, in America we don’t take able-bodied and mentally competent people to the polls on not only the County, but State and  Federal taxpayer’s dime.

If these young adults want to vote, they could and should do so on their own time. Saying they were not told how to vote is bullcrap, as it does not take much to figure out how a majority of them would be casting their votes. Hmmm is there anyone who does NOT know what candidate the youth vote is aligned behind? Or the African-Amerian vote for that matter? I don’t know, but since a majority are African-Americans,  and all are definity youth, something tells me Barack Obama has that vote firmly in his column. Of course if this is the demographic Gallup is polling, they might as well give Obama a 20 point lead…

Imagine the uproar that would have ensued if a similar program was instituted in a predominantly GOP county in say Ohio, Pennsylvania or even Florida?

 

Posted by PUMA Pundit

The Power of P.U.M.A On Display at the Polls in Florida…

99% of Democrats support Obama right? Wrong. Take a look at this snippet coming out of Florida:

Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early.

but guess what the same article goes on to state?

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

So Obama has a 6.4% advantage in turnout , yet is losing by 4%. Who could these democrats who are not voting for Obama possibly be?

Hmmm. Does the word “PUMA” ring a bell?e

If I say “PUMA” you say “Pounce”… PUMA… Pounce… PUMA… Pounce!

IMPLOSION Watch… Things are definitely not looking good for Obama

Hmmmm. I would be willing to bet money that somewhere in Obamaland someone is coming very close to having a nervous breakdown.

To say the news coming in for Team Obama is bad is an understatement, sure it could be worse, but if this trend persists, this election might as well be over for him and those who backed his candidacy.

Let’s start with an article in Sunday’s Telegraph, here are a few excerpts:

The Sunday Telegraph has learned that senators, governors and union leaders who have experience of winning hard-fought races in swing states have been bombarding Obamas campaign headquarters with telephone calls offering advice. But many of those calls have not been returned.

A senior Democratic strategist, who has played a prominent role in two presidential campaigns, told The Sunday Telegraph: “These guys are on the verge of blowing the greatest gimme in the history of American politics. They’re the most arrogant bunch Ive ever seen. They won’t accept that they are losing and they won’t listen.”

and in what seems to be an admission that Obama’s ego is out of control:

Party leaders and commentators say that the Democrat candidate spent too much of the summer enjoying his own popularity and not enough defining his positions on the economy - the number one issue for voters - or reaching out to those blue collar workers whose votes he needs if he is to beat Mr McCain.

and the coup de grace from that article:

Mark Cunningham of the New York Post summed up the private views of many: “If it suddenly seems like the Obama campaign doesn’t have any idea what it’s doing, maybe that’s because it doesn’t.”

Moving right along, let’s look at a few polls. Let’s start with numbers for Florida and Pennsylvania, two must win states for Obama.

The St. Petersburg Times in a story titled Florida may be falling from Obama’s grasp had the following nuggets about the going-ons in that state:

Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.

Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America’s biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state.

…

But for all the attention to Florida from the Obama campaign, there’s little tangible evidence it’s paying off.

He is farther behind in the state than John Kerry was at this point in 2004, even though McCain began buying Florida TV ads only last week. By this time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV. In the rolling average of Florida polls compiled by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com, Obama has never taken the lead over McCain in Florida, and the latest average shows him behind by 5 percentage points. They were tied in early August.

…

“They’ve had everything going for them — momentum, enthusiasm, money, a complicit national press, a stiff wind at his back for a long time, and he hasn’t been able pull ahead in Florida,” said Republican strategist Alberto Martinez of Tallahassee. “I think Florida is one of those states that’s taken off the board pretty soon, as they start focusing resources on states they can win.”

and then there is the issue with Pennsylvania. According tob Zogby, Obama is down by 5 in that state, with McCain - 49.1% , Obama - 44.3%, Not Sure/Other - 6.6% therefore taking it from a Blue state to a Purple state (Blue means the state is going Democratic, Red means it is going Republican, and purple means it is a toss-up).

Last but not least, even though it is highly unscientific, it has always been somewhat of a gauge of popular sentiment. I am talking about The AOL Straw Poll. Anyway, as it stands right now, Obama is winning in only Iowa and DC, this is despite the fact that he has 40% of the poll vote to McCain’s 60%…

Again, it seems USS Obama is sinking and sinking fast…

Posted by AD76

Obama Camp tells OH and FL voters to take a hike…

It seems Obama’s camp wants to win the presidency by bypassing Florida and Ohio.

Barack Obama’s campaign envisions a path to the presidency that could include Virginia, Georgia and several Rocky Mountain states, but not necessarily the pair of battlegrounds that decided the last two elections — Florida and Ohio.

In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe outlined several alternatives to reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House that runs counter to the conventional wisdom of recent elections.