Prediction II: The PUMA Prediction- McCain/Palin 307 : Obama/Biden 231
November 3, 2008 by PUMA Pundit · 14 Comments
Alrighty then, here is my prediction for this Presidential election:
Right now, I know most polls point to the fact that the following states are going to go Obama or are toss-ups, I think they will all end up in the McCain/Palin column by the time this election is over:
Nevada- Present Status: Toss-Up
In 2000, Nevada went Red by a margin of 3.55%
In 2004, Nevada went Red again by a margin of 2.59%
In 2008, going into the Primary Caucus, Hillary was leading with anywhere from 3% to 9%. Nevada had one of the most divisive primaries in the nation, with lawsuits being used to fight a proxy battle between Hillary’s supporters and Obama’s supporters.
If there is a state where there are lots of PUMAs, it is this one.
The fact that the state has voted Republican in the last two elections, the fact that the state borders Utah which is heavily Republican, and the fact that it has a large percentage of PUMAs, indicates it would go McCain/Palin tomorrow.
Colorado- Present Status: Toss-Up
In 2000, Colorado went Red by a margin of 8.36%
In 2004, Colorado, went Red by a margin of 4.67%
In 2008, at the Colorado Caucus, going in, Obama had a 2% lead in the polls, when all was said and done, Obama won the Caucus by a margin of 2:1. PUMAs don’t get mad, we get even.
The historical tendency of this state to go Red, and the number of PUMAs that are waiting for a chance to finally have their voices heard shall put this state in the McCain/Palin column.
New Mexico- Present Status: Toss-Up
In 2000, New Mexico went Blue by a margin of 0.06%
In 2004, New Mexico went Red by a margin of 0.79%
In 2008, Hillary won the New Mexico primary. Going into the general election, Barack Obama has to contend with voters who are literally split down the middle, add the PUMA factor and the odds are stacked against him. In 2000, Gore won the state by less than 400 votes, in 2004, Bush won that state by about 7,000 votes. To win in 2008, Obama would have to nullify Bush’s margin of victory, and also carry all 73,105 Hillary voters.
It is possible but improbable for Obama to achieve this feat, as at a bare minimum 10% of Hillary’s vote has gone PUMA. Consequently, expect New Mexico to be in the McCain/Palin column.
Iowa- Present Status: Obama
In 2000, Iowa went Blue by a margin of 0.31%
In 2004, Iowa went Red by a margin of 0.67%
In 2008, Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus. But, guess what? From all indications, a lot of those who voted for him were bused in from Eastern Illinois. In 2000, Gore won Iowa by less than 6,000 votes, in 2004, Bush won Iowa by about 10,000 votes.
To win Iowa in 2008, Barack Obama must not only nullify Bush’s margin of victory, but also ensure that in Iowa there aren’t at least 10,000 PUMAs. Again, this scenario is possible, but extremely improbable.
Missouri- Present Status: Toss Up
In 2000, Missouri went Red by a margin of 3.34%,
In 2004, Missouri went Red by a margin 7.20%
In 2008, Barack Obama won Missouri by 10,000 votes, although Hillary won 110 of the 116 counties in the State. It is important to note that in 2004, Bush did 23% better in Missouri’s small town’s than he did in small towns nationally, winning 112 of 113 of them. It is unlikely that this trend shall change significantly in 2008.
Plus MO is PUMA country. As with Iowa and New Mexico, it is possible but highly improbable for Barack Obama to not only eliminate the 7.20% lead George Bush had in 2004, as most of that vote came from rural counties, but also keep all 395,185 votes Hillary got in his column.
This puts Missouri firmly in the McCain/Palin column (remember, as Missouri goes, so goes the nation).
Ohio and Pennsylvania- Present Status: Toss Up
I am not even going to go into historical trends here, just go take a look at what happened in the primaries between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Hillary won each state by a margin of about 10%.
There is no historical precedent in a centrist society such as ours for a state to overwhelmingly reject a liberal candidate in the primaries in favor of a centrist/moderate one and then reject a centrist/moderate candidate in the general election in favor of a liberal one.
If there are two states which are definitely going McCain/Palin, those states would be Ohio and Pennsylvania. Pssst… those states are actually hotbeds of PUMA activity. Not only do we have offices there, bu PUMAs from other states such as NY have actually been volunteering in PA to boost the efforts of local PUMAs. I actully volunteered in Scranton, PA this weekend, where I met John and Cindy McCain 
Just in case you haven’t figured it out already, for the record, these two states are going to be in the McCain/Palin column.
Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana- Present Status: Toss Up
Just like PA and OH, I am not going to go into historical analysis here. However, the same concepts that apply to PA and OH, apply to these 3. Obama won VA and NC as a result of the black vote in the primaries. Hillary won IN despite voter fraud in Lake County that all but eliminated a double digit lead on her part.
Bush won VA by a margin of 8%+ in 2000 and 2004. Bush also won NC by a margin of about 13% in 2000 and 2004 (despite North Carolina Senator, John Edwards being the Demcoratic Vice-Presidential Candidate in that year).
It is possibly, but highly improbable that Obama would carry any of these states in the election. So again, all three can be put in the McCain/Palin category.
Florida- Present Status: Toss Up
Ever heard of Fidel Castro? Ever heard of how Obama disenfranchised Florida during the Primaries? Ever heard of how the military votes? For those three reasons Obama is a non-starter in this state.
Cubans who make up a large percentage of the population there are not going to vote for a man who promises socialism, when they all ran away from another socialist named Fidel Castro. PUMAs, and Florida has many of us, have not forgiven Obama for disenfranchising this state during the primaries, and of course the military families in this state do NOT trust Obama.
As a result this state is firmly going to McCain/Palin.
There you have it folks. Thanks to a combination of factors, Obama being unelectable being one of them, and of course PUMA power at work, tomorrow McCain/Palin shall not only replicate what George Bush did in 2004, but also turn Pennsylvania red!
If there is one thing you are going to take away from all the above, it is that a country does not go from center right to extreme left. Such a change does not happen because of a simple five letter word called P-R-I-D-E! As Americans we still fundamentally believe that the individual and not the government is the driving force of our nation.
The only time America lurched left was in 1932 after the great depression, Americans lost faith in themselves and wanted the state to take care of them. In 2008, as bad as things may be, the vast majority of people still have faith in themselves, they do NOT and will NOT have the government take over their welfare.
This is why Barack Obama’s message of doom, gloom, and the neccessity of having the government step in failed during the primaries, and shall fail at the ballot tomorrow.
God Bless America!
Posted by PUMA Pundit
