Prediction II: The PUMA Prediction- McCain/Palin 307 : Obama/Biden 231
November 3, 2008 by PUMA Pundit
Alrighty then, here is my prediction for this Presidential election:
Right now, I know most polls point to the fact that the following states are going to go Obama or are toss-ups, I think they will all end up in the McCain/Palin column by the time this election is over:
Nevada- Present Status: Toss-Up
In 2000, Nevada went Red by a margin of 3.55%
In 2004, Nevada went Red again by a margin of 2.59%
In 2008, going into the Primary Caucus, Hillary was leading with anywhere from 3% to 9%. Nevada had one of the most divisive primaries in the nation, with lawsuits being used to fight a proxy battle between Hillary’s supporters and Obama’s supporters.
If there is a state where there are lots of PUMAs, it is this one.
The fact that the state has voted Republican in the last two elections, the fact that the state borders Utah which is heavily Republican, and the fact that it has a large percentage of PUMAs, indicates it would go McCain/Palin tomorrow.
Colorado- Present Status: Toss-Up
In 2000, Colorado went Red by a margin of 8.36%
In 2004, Colorado, went Red by a margin of 4.67%
In 2008, at the Colorado Caucus, going in, Obama had a 2% lead in the polls, when all was said and done, Obama won the Caucus by a margin of 2:1. PUMAs don’t get mad, we get even.
The historical tendency of this state to go Red, and the number of PUMAs that are waiting for a chance to finally have their voices heard shall put this state in the McCain/Palin column.
New Mexico- Present Status: Toss-Up
In 2000, New Mexico went Blue by a margin of 0.06%
In 2004, New Mexico went Red by a margin of 0.79%
In 2008, Hillary won the New Mexico primary. Going into the general election, Barack Obama has to contend with voters who are literally split down the middle, add the PUMA factor and the odds are stacked against him. In 2000, Gore won the state by less than 400 votes, in 2004, Bush won that state by about 7,000 votes. To win in 2008, Obama would have to nullify Bush’s margin of victory, and also carry all 73,105 Hillary voters.
It is possible but improbable for Obama to achieve this feat, as at a bare minimum 10% of Hillary’s vote has gone PUMA. Consequently, expect New Mexico to be in the McCain/Palin column.
Iowa- Present Status: Obama
In 2000, Iowa went Blue by a margin of 0.31%
In 2004, Iowa went Red by a margin of 0.67%
In 2008, Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus. But, guess what? From all indications, a lot of those who voted for him were bused in from Eastern Illinois. In 2000, Gore won Iowa by less than 6,000 votes, in 2004, Bush won Iowa by about 10,000 votes.
To win Iowa in 2008, Barack Obama must not only nullify Bush’s margin of victory, but also ensure that in Iowa there aren’t at least 10,000 PUMAs. Again, this scenario is possible, but extremely improbable.
Missouri- Present Status: Toss Up
In 2000, Missouri went Red by a margin of 3.34%,
In 2004, Missouri went Red by a margin 7.20%
In 2008, Barack Obama won Missouri by 10,000 votes, although Hillary won 110 of the 116 counties in the State. It is important to note that in 2004, Bush did 23% better in Missouri’s small town’s than he did in small towns nationally, winning 112 of 113 of them. It is unlikely that this trend shall change significantly in 2008.
Plus MO is PUMA country. As with Iowa and New Mexico, it is possible but highly improbable for Barack Obama to not only eliminate the 7.20% lead George Bush had in 2004, as most of that vote came from rural counties, but also keep all 395,185 votes Hillary got in his column.
This puts Missouri firmly in the McCain/Palin column (remember, as Missouri goes, so goes the nation).
Ohio and Pennsylvania- Present Status: Toss Up
I am not even going to go into historical trends here, just go take a look at what happened in the primaries between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Hillary won each state by a margin of about 10%.
There is no historical precedent in a centrist society such as ours for a state to overwhelmingly reject a liberal candidate in the primaries in favor of a centrist/moderate one and then reject a centrist/moderate candidate in the general election in favor of a liberal one.
If there are two states which are definitely going McCain/Palin, those states would be Ohio and Pennsylvania. Pssst… those states are actually hotbeds of PUMA activity. Not only do we have offices there, bu PUMAs from other states such as NY have actually been volunteering in PA to boost the efforts of local PUMAs. I actully volunteered in Scranton, PA this weekend, where I met John and Cindy McCain 
Just in case you haven’t figured it out already, for the record, these two states are going to be in the McCain/Palin column.
Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana- Present Status: Toss Up
Just like PA and OH, I am not going to go into historical analysis here. However, the same concepts that apply to PA and OH, apply to these 3. Obama won VA and NC as a result of the black vote in the primaries. Hillary won IN despite voter fraud in Lake County that all but eliminated a double digit lead on her part.
Bush won VA by a margin of 8%+ in 2000 and 2004. Bush also won NC by a margin of about 13% in 2000 and 2004 (despite North Carolina Senator, John Edwards being the Demcoratic Vice-Presidential Candidate in that year).
It is possibly, but highly improbable that Obama would carry any of these states in the election. So again, all three can be put in the McCain/Palin category.
Florida- Present Status: Toss Up
Ever heard of Fidel Castro? Ever heard of how Obama disenfranchised Florida during the Primaries? Ever heard of how the military votes? For those three reasons Obama is a non-starter in this state.
Cubans who make up a large percentage of the population there are not going to vote for a man who promises socialism, when they all ran away from another socialist named Fidel Castro. PUMAs, and Florida has many of us, have not forgiven Obama for disenfranchising this state during the primaries, and of course the military families in this state do NOT trust Obama.
As a result this state is firmly going to McCain/Palin.
There you have it folks. Thanks to a combination of factors, Obama being unelectable being one of them, and of course PUMA power at work, tomorrow McCain/Palin shall not only replicate what George Bush did in 2004, but also turn Pennsylvania red!
If there is one thing you are going to take away from all the above, it is that a country does not go from center right to extreme left. Such a change does not happen because of a simple five letter word called P-R-I-D-E! As Americans we still fundamentally believe that the individual and not the government is the driving force of our nation.
The only time America lurched left was in 1932 after the great depression, Americans lost faith in themselves and wanted the state to take care of them. In 2008, as bad as things may be, the vast majority of people still have faith in themselves, they do NOT and will NOT have the government take over their welfare.
This is why Barack Obama’s message of doom, gloom, and the neccessity of having the government step in failed during the primaries, and shall fail at the ballot tomorrow.
God Bless America!
Posted by PUMA Pundit
Those of you who follow this site may know from past posting that the two main reason that I am a proud and pouncing PUMA are my belief that voter disenfranchisement is anti-democratic. I went to Washington on May 31 to voice my protest but the DNC had already made up its mind to disallow Florida and Michigan voters. Remember Obama told his supporters not to go and then decided at the convention to ‘count’ the votes when he was sure they no longer counted. Obama is an opportunist. He promised to use public financing and then raised unprecedented amounts of money , while refusing to have any oversight of who gave how much or how often. Senator Obama claims his work at ACORN as his experience but denies any involvement in their massive fraud both in the primary and general election.
My second motivation is the sexism; I’ve worked with the victims of sexual assault for many years; I disagree with the voice of some feminists who say women must vote Democratic because of Roe v Wade. If a highly qualified woman like Hillary Clinton can be treated the way she was by her own party, we, as women have much bigger things to worry about. The fact that a Sarah Palin is a cu*t tee-shirt could be worn freely and found through Obama’s website and not he nor anyone associated with his campaign spoke against it as John McCain did (on racism). Obama , who is so good at using his words to manipulate (motivate) found he had none to address this. His own daughters are going to live a world where such treatment of women has become even more acceptable because the Messiah found it unworthy of his attention. 25% of white women and over 37% of women of color are sexually assaulted in their life time; this is not unworthy of attention. If you have been a victim of sexual assault, I urge you tell Senator Obama that it matters by voting for McCain/Palin.
Great map.. even better prediction.. thanks PUMA! Keep up the good work.. let’s get out today and VOTE.. let’s wrap this thing up.
McCain ~ Palin 2008
I don’t understand any of the polling. the last polling from Iowa (I’m from Iowa) showed 0 with a 15% lead. I can’t get past looping into could people be that stupid or polling that bad.
I don’t see a thread to discuss voter irregularities. should one be started?
Philadelphia
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2008/11/021984.php
Well, I’m not so sure… I went to vote today, the place I have used for several times for casting my vote. I never saw so many Africa-Americans show up, even during Democratic premier (actually very few). They are so many today and almost likely 40% of voters and seem so unrealistic because our neighborhood never has so many Africa-Americans around (a very typical suburban area). If you go to the schools, there are a very small fraction of Africa- American kids. I talked to the stuff of McCain’s campaign, she was also so puzzled because these America-American voters really do not look like people living in our neighborhood. There are so many strange things happened during this election…
I am American of Cuban decent living in Miami. You’re right about the majority of Cubans voting for McCain. Just this weekend there was a rally at La Carreta Cuban Restaurant with all sorts of sign reading “Vote for Capitalism Not Socialism”. They were even selling T-Shirts for $5.00 that read “Cuba Got Change in 1959).
I must admit that I have never been so scared of an election. My Cuban family and friends are in a state of “PANIC”. They keep saying Obama reminds them of a young Fidel in 1959. They say there are so many similarities.
I’m a conservative Republican, but I promise that if you PUMAs pull this off, I WILL vote for Hillary Clinton in 2012 if she’s on the ticket.
I am and will always be an American. I believe in our Founding Fathers Vision and Dream and every document that they drafted into the Law of the Land; But most importantly I believe in American and Keeping America America. I would Give My Life for this country and its symbols before I would allow anyone to trade it away for pleasing foreign nationals. As such I am giving my vote to John McCain. As he is a true American (through and Through) - looking out for American and America now, forever and always.
And for the Record and to the PUMA’s - My Friend was the Only American Blown Up in the London Bombings. The Only person to help his family get to where they had to go and give them support and comfort was Hillary R. Clinton and as such I will have not problems voting for her - She gave her Support and I will give her mine.
Good guys finish the last, that’s what I feel about this whole election. Obama has been so manipulative, do everything to get elected. However, so many people are just not able to see through this crook!
Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!! It is so gratifying to know that there are so many great Americans who are willing to put our country first, rather than party. I really appreciate and respect all of you. I am a Republican, and am amazed at the number of Democrats who feel as you do and aren’t afraid to admit it. I worked at our local HQ this election and every time I’ve been there, at least one Democrat came in to admit he was voting for McCain and was very fired up about it. We can’t let the Obamafia take over this election, or any other for that matter. I don’t have a problem with an opposing candidate winning fair and square, but it is outrageous the lengths that have been gone to in an attempt to subvert the rule of law. Thanks for all of your hard work and keep it up! Your site has proven what I’ve suspected - the rank and file Democrats are not being represented by their party.
I’m with you Puma Pundit - I hope you’re on target with your poll numbers. I would imaging everyone has seen the video today of the “New Black Panther Party” members standing in front of a Philadelphia polling location, brandishing nightsticks. Quite intimidating if you are wearing McCain-Palin gear. If you remember, they endorsed Barry Hussein some months ago and for a period of time, their logo was posted on his website. Check it out on Sean Hannity.com
Everyone needs to vote - it’s the only way we can keep him out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Chuckd - I saw it - what would you expect from a dirty, dirty candidate. The only way he could win would be to cheat and intimidate voters - sounds like Chicago Poltics to me.
Perhaps Chavez gave him tips on how to run.
i am back to proudly announce that this country NO LONGER belongs to the Elite/Older disconnected voter, but to the youth … the youth that will inherit horrible your dear Republican Party’s screw ups. But fear not, we will fix it for you, we will gladly clean the mess the right way. Consider this a complete fall season-sweep, the time of the year when you go through your old junk and put it out in the yard sale (if you are lucky to get money for it) or better yet for free. consider this an eviction notice for the republicans our of the White House, the Senate and hopefully the House.
I said, good day sir!
This prediction was in error. The analysis was proven wrong by events.
I have been waiting for this day. The results from last night illustrate what idiots you all are. Hillary Clinton never would have broken the 300 electoral mark - not to mention 350. The arguments Hillary made during the primary and the ones you totally bought into were based not in fact, but rather were political maneuvers and last ditch efforts to try to win something she clearly lost. You look like fools.
I’ve been following this blog all summer and fall. We have arrived at the point in which your emotionally-based assumptions have been proven wrong. The MAJORITY of the people wanted Obama. They wanted unity within the party. They had more faith in the process than in the players. I would hope that you find a way to devote your considerable level of enthusiasm towards building something positive instead of tearing down the hard work of others. If McCain could be gracious in defeat, why can’t you?