Congratulations to Barack Obama for getting the coveted Colin Powell endorsement. However, other than feelings of excitement and the consequent back slapping and champagne cork popping going on at Team Obama HQ, what else does Colin Powell add to the race?
In my opinion, absolutely nothing.
Powell’s three constituencies are (in no particular order):
The military
The black community
Moderates in both parties
Let’s take a closer look at the three:
The military
When it comes to the military, I seriously doubt that Powell’s endorsement is going to make our men and women in uniform suddenly go ga-ga over Obama to the point of giving him their votes. They might take a second look at his candidacy, but that is about it. A liberal Obama/Biden ticket cannot capture the imagination of the majority of the people who lay their lives on the line for their country day in, day out. Incidentally, despite the war in Iraq, Afghanistan and allegations of under-funding, the military is overwhelmingly in support of the McCain/Palin ticket.
The Black Community
I have a confession to make. If Colin Powell were in the race, I would vote for him without thinking twice about it. A majority of the members of the black community would probably do the same. Does the fact that we share the same racial heritage have something to do with it? Probably not.
However, the fact that he is a role model and inspiration to millions of people (of all races) based on his track record of public service would definitely have endeared him to me and others who consider themselves “black African Americans” and thereby given him the overwhelming majority of our vote. It is this dynamic that Obama has counted on, despite being an empty suit.
Alas, unfortunately for Obama, the black vote is already firmly in Obama’s corner (right now it is range of the high 80s, low 90s), so Powell adds nothing to the table here.
Moderates in Both Parties
This is where Powell, could actually boost Obama. However, the moderate (as opposed to the conservative) wing of the GOP gave its vote to McCain, this is exactly the same constituency that Colin Powell represents. It is highly unlikely that they would switch allegiance from John McCain who they consider one of their own, to Barack Obama who is extremely liberal, simply because of a Powell endorsement.
On the part of moderates in the Democratic Party, as all are probably aware, the primary election was between the liberal wing which overwhelmingly went to Obama, and the moderate wing, which overwhelmingly went to Hillary Clinton. Since Obama became the candidate of the party, most of Hillary’s supporters (PUMAs) haven’t thrown their support behind his candidacy, and it is next to impossible to imagine that Powell’s endorsement would change this dynamic.
So why exactly did Colin Powell endorse Obama?
I think it’s for three major reasons.
1) Payback to the GOP for using him and dumping him when he did not play out of George Bush’s playbook.
2) Desire to see an African-American to become President in his lifetime.
3) Desire to repair his reputation in the black community, a reputation that was for the most part destroyed when he served under George Bush.
While no one can fault Colin Powell for his endorsement or what led to it, as stated earlier, in the bigger scheme of things, this does not give Obama any sort of electoral advantage.
Posted by PUMA Pundit
