The MSM and Polling agencies have cast their votes with Obama, this is fact not speculation. If you go by what they report, you might as well assume that this election is over, and Barack Obama has already won hands down.
However, the reality of the situation is that what they say their polls show and what is actually happening are two completely different things.
For example, let’s look at this Gallup Poll:
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Wednesday through Friday, including two days of interviewing after Wednesday night’s final presidential debate, shows Barack Obama with a 50%to 42% lead over John McCain among registered voters. [emphasis ours]
Looking at this report, one would be inclined to think that Obama has a commanding lead. Well, he doesn’t, because if you drill down, here is what you’ll get (again the emphasis is ours):
If turnout in this year’s election follows traditional patterns by which the voting electorate skews towards those who usually vote as well as those who are interested in this year’s election, the race shows Obama leading at 49% to 47% where it has been among this group for three days.
The data above is more indicative of where the race stands than the data which samples registered voters in the previous paragraph because not all registered voters vote. It is as simple as that.
Now check the next line out:
the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
What this means ladies and and gentlemen, even if Gallup’s own data is used, the race is a statistical tie. Incidentally, the AP poll comes to the same conclusions.
Ann Coulter also talks about why the polls don’t paint a true picture of what is really going on:
Political correctness has taught people to lie to pollsters rather than be forced to explain why they’re not voting for the African-American.
This is how two typical voters might answer a pollster’s question: “Whom do you support for president?”
Average Obama voter: “Obama.” (Name of average Obama voter: “Mickey Mouse.”)
Average McCain voter: “I’m voting for McCain, but I swear it’s just about the issues. It’s not because Obama’s black. If Barack Obama were a little more moderate — hey, I’d vote for Colin Powell. But my convictions force me to vote for the candidate who just happens to be white. Say, do you know where I can get Patti LaBelle tickets?”
In addition to the social pressure to constantly prove you’re not a racist, apparently there is massive social pressure to prove you’re not a Republican. No one is lying about voting for McCain just to sound cool.
Reviewing the polls printed in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points [Don't forget, this year the PUMA Effect is at Play].
Looking at the polls from 1976 to 2004, here is what Ann comes up with:
In 1980, Ronald Reagan beat Carter by nearly 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent. In a Gallup Poll released days before the election on Oct. 27, it was Carter who led Reagan 45 percent to 42 percent.
In 1984, Reagan walloped Walter Mondale 58.8 percent to 40 percent, — the largest electoral landslide in U.S. history. But on Oct. 15, The New York Daily News published a poll showing Mondale with only a 4-point deficit to Reagan, 45 percent to 41 percent. A Harris Poll about the same time showed Reagan with only a 9-point lead. The Oct. 19 New York Times/CBS News Poll had Mr. Reagan ahead of Mondale by 13 points. All these polls underestimated Reagan’s actual margin of victory by 6 to 15 points.
In 1988, George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis by a whopping 53.4 percent to 45.6 percent. A New York Times/CBS News Poll on Oct. 5 had Bush leading the Greek homunculus by a statistically insignificant 2 points — 45 percent to 43 percent. (For the kids out there: Before it became a clearinghouse for anti-Bush conspiracy theories, CBS News was considered a credible journalistic entity.)
Admittedly, a 3- to 6-point error is not as crazily wrong as the 6- to 15-point error in 1984. But it’s striking that even small “margin of error” mistakes never seem to benefit Republicans.
In 1992, Bill Clinton beat the first President Bush 43 percent to 37.7 percent. (Ross Perot got 18.9 percent of Bush’s voters that year.) On Oct. 18, a Newsweek Poll had Clinton winning 46 percent to 31 percent, and a CBS News Poll showed Clinton winning 47 percent to 35 percent.
So in 1992, the polls had Clinton 12 to 15 points ahead, but he won by only 5.3 points.
In 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole 49 percent to 40 percent. And yet on Oct. 22, 1996, The New York Times/CBS News Poll showed Clinton leading by a massive 22 points, 55 percent to 33 percent.
In 2000, which I seem to recall as being fairly close, the October polls accurately described the election as a virtual tie, with either Bush or Al Gore 1 or 2 points ahead in various polls. But in one of the latest polls to give either candidate a clear advantage, The New York Times/CBS News Poll on Oct. 3, 2000, showed Gore winning by 45 percent to 39 percent.
In the last presidential election the polls were surprisingly accurate — not including the massively inaccurate Election Day exit poll. In the end, Bush beat John Kerry 50.7 percent to 48.3 percent in 2004. Most of the October polls showed the candidates in a dead-heat, with Bush 1 to 3 points ahead. So either pollsters got a whole lot better starting in 2004, or Democrats stole more votes in that election than we even realized.
So there you have it folks. Stop panicking, this thing is far from over. Polls are usually in favor of Democrats by 6-10%, and McCain and Obama are in a statistical dead heat, therefore McCain/Palin are ahead by a minimum of 4-6%.
Of course, the PUMA Effect has not been taken into account nor has the bonus effect of older women who shall vote for McCain/Palin because they want to see the glass ceiling shattered in their life and by electing Sarah Palin Vice-President, they shall accomplish just that.
Anyway, as always, you can count on PUMAs not to break ranks and vote for Obama… We are committed to ensuring a minimum of 30% of Hillary’s 18 million votes do NOT vote for Obama . Fellow citizen, on your part, all you need to focus on is personally delivering 3 votes away from Obama, and teaching those 3 to do the exact same thing.
Our work is cut out for us, the task at hand is of the most serious nature. The choice is ours, we have about two weeks of long hard work in ensuring he loses at the polls or 4 years of an Obama presidency where the American way of life shall be eroded to the point of absurdity.
You ask , what should I do? I say talk to everyone, talk to everyone you come across, the power to change the outcome of this election is your mouth. Educate, never alienate, and remember you can make a difference.
Posted by PUMA Pundit
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